Not all paths to Net Zero are equal
The path to Net Zero by 2050 is as important as simply getting there.
As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown, the eventual level of warming of the planet depends directly on the cumulative total carbon emitted [1]. The carbon emissions between now and 2050 depend on the actions we take, not on our promises:
Delayed action means keeping emissions high longer, then trying to sprint to the finish (which is in any case very risky). It will mean higher total carbon emitted (as the shaded areas in the Figure illustrate) and so worse extreme weather events. These will hit the poorest in society, exposed most to food and energy price rises.
Rapid action now will actually make change easier, with improved infrastructure sooner; and with support for those most in need, to enable a fair transition. Making towns like ours less reliant on oil and gas will also improve our immediate environment, and thereby our health and well-being.
Delaying action in key areas like transport and heating is a false economic argument. It also tries to claim a continuing commitment to action on climate that is disingenuous. Whereas it is in reality denying the increasing severity of climate impacts that will result.
Paths to Net Zero: Delayed action versus Rapid action
Because renewables are now the cheapest form of electricity energy generation [2], switching off coal, oil and gas - whether burned in power stations or in our homes and cars - will help us reduce bills and become independent of authoritarian ‘Petrostates’ like Saudi Arabia and Russia. It will also save huge sums of money [3].
Because electrification of the end use of energy is so much more efficient (in EV cars, trams, induction hobs, heat pumps, etc), we can reduce overall energy demand too.
It will also improve air quality in our homes and in towns and cities.
What beckons is a future that is safer, healthier, cheaper and more resilient.
What, one is bound to ask, is there not to like about a rapid transition to a greener future?
References
Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Why did renewables become so cheap so fast, Our World In Data, https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth
Decarbonising the energy system by 2050 could save trillions - Oxford study, Oxford University, https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2022-09-14-decarbonising-energy-system-2050-could-save-trillions-oxford-study