Greening Our Energy: How Soon?
Richard using one of many props to help illustrate the live talk
This 40 minute talk was presented at Sawyer Hall, Nailsworth, on Thursday 22nd February, given by Dr Richard Erskine, Education Lead for Nailsworth Climate Action Network. It was followed by 30 minutes of lively Q&A. A full transcript of the talk (including extensive references) and text from a Q&A following the talk, can be found here.
A video of the talk, including all the illustrations used, can be viewed here (this is 45 minute online version):
Here is a summary of the talk.
There are many opinions on how realistic it is for the UK to be self-sufficient with renewables for its energy needs.
This talk set out to answer some key questions:
Firstly, could all of future energy demand be met by wind and solar?
Secondly, what are the opportunities and hurdles on this journey?
Thirdly, how soon can we do it?
This is not to discount other forms of low carbon energy, but if we can show that it can be done with wind and solar alone, then of course, any other forms of low carbon or zero carbon energy that are available will simply make that goal easier to meet. It won’t make it harder to meet.
Specifically, nuclear has met about 20% of our electricity generation needs over recent decades, with an aging fleet of reactors. It is likely with new projects to continue to meet around 20%, and given the climate crisis many would say it would be foolish to stop current projects. Although, of course, many would dispute how ‘green’ we can say nuclear is.
The talk included some demystifying of energy, power and energy efficiency to help in the understanding of some of the numbers that you will see flying around in the media debates.
Can we meet future demand using just wind and solar?
The conclusion of the talk, based on the information presented, is yes. We could easily be self-reliant with wind and solar alone.
The proviso is that we would need significant levels of energy storage to get beyond 80% wind and solar, to reach 100% of the total energy mix. This is to deal with peaks and troughs in supply and demand, to deal with any mismatch between supply and demand of energy.
To get off fossil fuels the UK has to electrify most of the end-use of energy. It can do this in transport with electric cars, trains and buses, and with heating by using heat pumps and district heating. It can also do it in industry, such as steel making.
It is no good creating lots of renewable electricity generation if it has nowhere to go, so transforming how we use energy is an essential twin to the building out of the low carbon energy infrastructure. If we build solar and wind energy resources but continue to burn fossil fuels - notably in our buildings and cars - then we won’t reduce our current carbon emissions.
The talk shared the results of a recent Oxford study [1]. The study showed that we can readily meet our future energy needs with quite modest use of UK land and its exclusive economic zone at sea.
A recent Royal Society report [2] on long-term energy storage has concluded that hydrogen will play a key role in energy storage. The hydrogen [3] can be created using electricity when there is an excess of wind or solar, and then stored in salt caverns. It can be then be used later to generate electricity using fuel-cells to put electricity on the grid when it is needed to deal with a shortfall in supply.
Opportunities & Hurdles
Transitioning to green energy brings several opportunities:
to stop damaging the planet and its ecosystems;
to have clean air in our homes and towns;
to stop being reliant on petro-states and volatile international energy markets;
and to create a new vibrant economy based on green energy.
The hurdles are also there:
regulations and an ossified planning regime that has slowed deployment of onshore wind, solar and grid connections.
electricity market in desperate need of reform.
and the biggest hurdle of all has been the lack of long-term thinking and political leadership at all levels of government.
How Soon?
I think that ‘How soon’ is a poorly defined question:
How soon to displace the current gas generating capacity?
Or how soon to electrify the 80% of demand that is not yet electrified?
Those are two different targets.
The key ‘How Soon’ suggested in the talk was: How soon will we have a government committed to a fully fledged plan to mobilise the economy – including the talents, skills, regulations and incentives needed – to start us on an accelerated path to net zero?
The talk concluded with three final reflections:
Embrace optimism
A sustainable future is possible if we make progressive choices, for people and planet. It’s ok to be optimistic about the future, while recognising the severe impacts of climate change and the challenges we face. Resigning oneself to catastrophe is a recipe for inaction and despair, and I for one reject that choice.
Hannah Ritchie’s recent book [4] ‘Not the end of the World’ is recommended for anyone wanting a boost of positive thinking on the choices and opportunities we have to build a sustainable future for people and planet.
System change not merely substitution
For example, 30 million EVs is not the answer to 30 million petrol and diesel cars (zero EVs is also not the answer). Mere substitution is not the answer,
We need less clogged up, people friendly, walkable towns & cities. Electrification of improved bus, tram & rail services is also key, alongside EV cars.
We need head, hand and heart
A green energy transition is essential to save the planet, and energy storage will be key to fully adopting renewables [12]. We can create a new thriving economy and society which enjoys abundant energy enabling education, health and agricultural benefits for all, including impoverished communities.
But it’s not inevitable that head, hand and heart will work together to create a fairer world.
We must therefore strive to put communities at the heart of everything we do, such as through community energy [13], to decentralise power as far as possible, and not to perpetuate current injustices.
The End
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Acknowledgements
The talk includes insights from many people: Ken Caldeira [4], Richard Hellen [5], David Mackay [6], Hannah Ritchie [7] and Rupert Way [8] to name just a few.
And from many institutions: The Centre for Alternative Technology [10], Our World In Data [11], Oxford Univerisity (including the Smith School of Energy and the Environment), The Royal Society, The Schumacher Institute and the UK’s Committee on Climate Change, to name just a few.
How these insights and some materials and data have been used here - including any errors or omissions - are the sole responsibility of Dr Richard Erskine.
The figures used from reports are overlaid in the presentation with annotations using large text to highlight the key messages. Anyone wanting to see the original figures and data are directed via links to the sources.
Notes
Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Wind and solar power could significantly exceed Britain’s energy needs, https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2023-09-26-wind-and-solar-power-could-significantly-exceed-britain-s-energy-needs
Royal Society, Large Scale Energy Storage, September 2023, https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/large-scale-electricity-storage/V1_Large-scale-electricity-storage-report.pdf?la=en-GB&hash=90BC8F8BCBC2A34431B6CF9DD80A8C9D
Hydrogen in this context is for long term storage, NOT for heating. As the Climate Change Committee has projected, heating will be mostly met by domestic heat pumps and district heating. The district heating itself will often be community-scale heat pumps. The reason for this is the vastly greater energy efficiency of using heat pumps as compared to burning hydrogen in our homes.
Caldeira (2018), Geophysical Constraints on the Reliability of Solar and Wind Power in the United States, https://kencaldeira.com/2018/03/geophysical-constraints-on-the-reliability-of-solar-and-wind-power-in-the-united-states/
Richard Hellen, energy analyst and Fellow of The Schumacher Institute, https://schumacherinstitute.org.uk/management-team/#member-25495-info
Mackay (2008), Sustainable Energy without the hot air, http://www.withouthotair.com/
Ritchie, Hannah, Not the End of the World - How We Can be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet, Chatto & Windus, 2024
Rupert Way was co-author on both the key paper [1] above, and the 2022 paper [9] - which had considerable worldwide coverage - that showed the world could save trillions of dollars if it moved rapidy to scale up renewable technologies such as wind, solar and electrolysers:
Decarbonising the energy system by 2050 could save trillions – Oxford study, https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2022-09-14-decarbonising-energy-system-2050-could-save-trillions-oxford-study
Centre for Alternative Technology (2019), Zero Carbon Britain: Rising to the Climate Emergency, https://cat.org.uk/info-resources/zero-carbon-britain/research-reports/zero-carbon-britain-rising-to-the-climate-emergency/ (this is an update of a previous CAT report Zero Carbon Britain: Rethinking the Future)
Annual generation of electricity, Our World In Data, https://ourworldindata.org/energy
Report from the House of Lords on Long-duration Energy Storage: Get On With It underlines importance of storage to get us to a fully clean energy system, dominated by renewables.
A key question arose on how much energy could a town like Nailsworth generate for itself from wind and solar produced by community energy, and another blog aims to answer this question: https://essaysconcerning.com/2024/03/06/how-much-energy-could-a-community-generate-itself/